The Board of the Central Bank adopted a decision to set the basic rate at 15% per annum.
This decision was made taking into account the downward revision of the inflation forecast amid a slowdown in economic activity amid falling external and domestic demand.
Given the weakening and lowering pressure on inflation of demand factors in the second quarter and before the end of the year, according to updated forecasts, by the end of 2020, the inflation rate in the country will decrease by 1 percentage point compared to initial estimates (12-13, 5 percent) and will reach 11-12,5%.
The change in the timing of liberalization of regulatory prices, as well as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on inflation, in the current economic conditions is more manifested by supply factors, and in the future these factors will become reducing.
Economic activity and macroeconomic forecasts. Since March 2020, in the world and countries – the main trading partners, there has been a decrease in indicators of economic growth and activity as a result of increased measures to combat the coronavirus pandemic, falling oil prices and reducing demand.
A drop in economic activity and a decrease in household incomes, in turn, lead to a significant decrease in domestic demand.
Given the high uncertainty of the duration of the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the global economy, a revision of the basic forecast for real GDP growth in Uzbekistan for 2020 requires additional analysis. The conclusions of the Central Bank on this indicator will be presented after the completion of analytical calculations.